WARREN BUFFET RULES :
We all admire and envy Warren Buffett and his billions of dollars. We will any day be happy to achieve what he has accomplished. However, despite being fully aware of his methods and techniques, we have failed miserably to garner even a tiny fraction of his success. Why? Following is a brief account of what he advocates and where we have failed.
1. "I try to look out ten or twenty years when making an acquisition."
Most of us, however, don't see beyond ten to twenty 'days' (or, in the best case scenario, ten to twenty 'months'). Clearly, we lack the discipline and patience to make money from the stock market. We treat it as a make-money-overnight casino. Therefore, I guess the stock market too treats us ‘gamblers’- and we invariably end up on the losing side. Instead, had we considered it as a tool for long-term wealth creation then the market too would have regarded us as ‘investors’ and we too would have become mini-Warren Buffetts.
2. "Most of the investments like money-market funds, bonds, bank deposits are thought as "safe". In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge. Over the past century these have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries even as the investors continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal."
We simply do not appreciate the corrosive power of inflation. Inflation (together with the tax on interest income) guarantees that our money growth in such ‘guaranteed-return’ products will NEVER match the rise in prices. In short, we will become poorer day by day. As I observed the other day, I am paying more school fees for my child 'every year' than what my father spent in the entire '16 years' from 1st std. to my engineering degree. I dread how I would have educated my child had I opted to play ‘safe’.
3. "The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else- who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive- will pay more for them in the future. The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets. Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative."
Those who admire the returns given by gold in last few years may kindly look more deeply into history. During the last 35-36 years (from 1975-2011) gold delivered a mere 6.53% p.a. yield (and that too after the recent run-up in gold prices). In fact, in between for about 25 years, from 1981 to 2005, the returns were practically zero. As such gold may be seen as an insurance during bad times (like the recent economic crisis) and not as a wealth creator.
4. "My own preference — and you knew this was coming — is our investment in productive assets whether businesses, farms or real-estate. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner. More important, it will be by far the safest."
Historical evidence over the last 30-40 years shows that these “productive” assets have delivered inflation-beating and wealth-creating returns of around 15-20% p.a. Many have become millionaires and crorepatis by investing in real estate. But stock markets have failed to do so. This is not because of any problem with equities, but because of our flawed strategy of investing in equities (as elucidated in the 1st point). Given that Indians don’t know how to invest in equities, I guess they should stick to property.
5. "A few years back, I spent about $x billion buying several bond issues of XYZ Holdings. That was a mistake — a big mistake. I totally miscalculated the gain/loss probabilities when I purchased the bonds. In tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman."
How many of us have the courage to accept our mistakes and learn from it? Very few, I suppose. It will hurt our ego very badly. Therefore, typically the tendency is to blame the market, the economy, the politicians or whatever suits the moment.